Steven Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and Director of Research at the Hoover Institution, and Senior Fellow at Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR).
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Source: Figure 8.b in “What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?” with Scott Baker, Nick Bloom and Marco Sammon. NBER Working Paper 28687, revised 18 April 2026
Remarks: This chart shows that upward stock market jumps attributed to monetary policy or government spending are much likelier after stock market drops than otherwise. Table 4 in our paper implies that a 20% market drop raises the unconditional likelihood of a jump attributed to monetary policy or government spending by a factor of five.
Steven J. Davis is the Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford Senior Fellow and the Director of Research at the Hoover Institution and Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). He was on the faculty at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business for more than 35 years, including service as deputy dean of the faculty.
Davis is an applied economist who studies working arrangements, business dynamics, economic fluctuations, policy uncertainty, and other topics. His research over the past decade uses text-as-data and innovative surveys of workers and firms to explore these and other topics. Much of his early and recent research uses longitudinal data on firms and establishments to explore business outcomes and their labor market consequences. He is a co-founder of the Economic Policy Uncertainty project, the U.S. Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes, the Global Survey of Working Arrangements, the Survey of Business Uncertainty, and the Stock Market Jumps project. He co-organizes the Asian Monetary Policy Forum, held annually in Singapore.
He is also a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, IZA research fellow, senior academic fellow with the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research, former adviser to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office, consultant to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, senior adviser to the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, advisor to the Economic Policy Group of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, past editor of the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomic, elected fellow of the Society of Labor Economists, and a member of the American Academy of Sciences and Letters. More
His research appears in the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, and other leading scholarly journals. He has received research grants from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Ewing Marion Kauffmann Foundation, Templeton Foundation, John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, and other organizations, including multiple grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation. In 2013, he received the Addington Prize in Measurement, awarded by the Fraser Institute for Public Policy, for his research on “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.”
His teaching experience includes Ph.D. courses in macroeconomics and labor economics at the University of Chicago, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the University of Maryland; MBA courses in macroeconomics, money and banking, business strategy, and financial institutions for Chicago Booth; and executive MBA courses in macroeconomics for Chicago Booth in Barcelona, Hong Kong, London, and Singapore. Davis has also taught undergraduate courses in microeconomics, econometrics, and money and banking at Brown University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Davis has served as an expert in many litigation matters. In the antitrust area, he has testified and consulted on market definition, dominance, competitive relationships, exclusionary practices, price discrimination, and collusive conduct. In mortgage lending and consumer finance matters, he has testified and consulted on class certification, liability, and damages. He has also offered testimony and analysis of damages in breach of contract and credit market discrimination. Past engagements include matters pertaining to auto loans and leases, containerboard and corrugated products, microprocessors, mortgage loans, pharmaceuticals, software products and markets, specialty grocery products, trade shows, viatical and life settlements, and workers’ compensation insurance. Outside of litigation matters, he has consulted on labor market developments, the macroeconomic outlook, capital planning in a large financial institution, new labor market measures, and the use of text-based methods to quantify tax reform likelihoods.
In addition to his scholarly work, Davis has written for the Atlantic, Financial Times, Forbes, Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal and other popular media, and he has appeared on BBC, Bloomberg TV, CGTN, Channel News Asia, CNBC, CNN, Fox News, NBC Network News, Sinclair Broadcast Group, and the U.S. Public Broadcasting System, among others.
“Why Working from Home Will Stick,” with Jose Maria Barrero and Nicholas Bloom, 9 October 2026. NBER Working Paper 28731, revised. Slides | Programs | BFI Economic Finding 1 | BFI Economic Finding 2 | NBER Digest | Chicago Booth Review | World Economic Forum Video Synopsis | Hoover Economic Policy Workshop | WFH_Research Website | Media Coverage | Statistical Updates
“Application Flows” with Brenda Samaniego de la Parra, NBER WP 32320. Revised, 2 October 2026. Database Dictionary | Blog Post, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis | Slides for Keynote speech
“How Are Firms Using Their Tariff Refunds?” with Barrero, Bloom, Foster, Jalca, Meyer, Mihaylov and Navarrete, Macroblog, 21 September 2026.
“Ensuring Affordable Energy in the 21st Century,” Hoover Institution, 18 August 2026. (6-minute video clip)
“Remote Work across Jobs, Companies, and Space” with Hansen, Lambert, Bloom, Sadun and Taska. NBER WP 31007, revised 11 August 2026. Data | BFI Finding | VoxEU
“Two Labor Market Upheavals in the 2020s, or Just One?” Slides to accompany remarks at the Hoover Institution Summer Policy Bootcamp, 11 August 2026.
“The New Geography of Labor Markets,” with Akan, Barrero, Bloom, Bowen, Buckman and Kim, working paper, revised 7 August 2026. Slides | Presentation
“Remote Work, Employee Mix, and Performance,” with Aksoy, Bloom, Marino and Özgüzel, NBER WP 33851, revised, 25 June 2026. VoxEU | VoxDev
“One Office Day a Month Boosts Remote Team Performance,” with Aksoy, Bloom, Marino and Özgüzel, VoxEU, 23 June 2026.
"China and the US: Who Wins in the Long Run?" Freedom Frequency, 10 June 2026.
“The Value of One Office Day a Month” with Aksoy, Bloom, Marino and Ozguzel, NBER Working Paper 35331, 8 June 2026. VoxEU
“How Much Are Firms Spending on AI (and What Will Happen to Headcounts)?” with Barrero, Bloom, Foster, Meyer, Mihaylov, and Navarrete, Macroblog, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 6 May 2026.
“What Triggers Stock Market Jumps?” with Scott Baker, Nick Bloom and Marco Sammon. NBER Working Paper 28687, revised 18 April 2026. Slides | Website | Coding Guide | BFI Economic Finding | VoxEU CEPR Policy Portal
“Demand-Driven Technical Change: Evidence from WFH Technologies,” with Nick Bloom and Mihai Codreanu, 8 April 2026. NBER Digest
Economists’ amicus brief in support of plaintiffs in State of Oregon v. Donald J. Trump, U.S. Court of International Trade, 8 April 2026. I am a signatory.
“Thomas Sowell: Knowledge, Incentives, and the Discipline of Consequences,” with Glenn Loury, 3 April 2026. Prepared as the introductory essay for The Sowell Legacy: Ideas, Impact, and Intellectual Freedom, edited by Steven J. Davis and Glenn C. Loury. Forthcoming from the Hoover Institution Press.
“Ten Lessons for Industrial Policy and One Chart,” remarks at a panel discussion on Industrial Policy for National Security at the Hoover Institution, 1 April 2026. Written Remarks | Slides
“Remote Work Can Blunt the Fertility Decline” with Aksoy and others, VoxEU, 25 March 2026.
“Augmentation or Automation: What AI Means for Work,” The Hoover Institution, 17 March 2026 — my onstage conversation with Erik Brynjolfsson (Director, Stanford Digital Economy Lab), Karin Kimbrough (Chief Economist, LinkedIn), and Peter McRory (Head of Economics Research, Anthropic).
“Firm Data on AI” with Ivan Yotzov and others, 16 March 2026. NBER Working Paper 34836, revised. VoxEU | NBER Digest | Slides
“Firms Predict an AI Productivity Boom Is Coming” with Ivan Yotsov and others, VoxEU, 12 March 2026.
“Work from Home and Fertility” with Aksoy, Barrero, Bloom, Cranney, Dolls and Zarate, NBER WP 34963, 5 March 2026. VoxEU
"The Big Shift in Working Arrangements,” The Simpson Lecture, Princeton University, 25 February 2026. Slides
“Younger Firms and CEOS Allow More Work from Home,” with Aksoy, Barrero, Bloom, Cranney, Dolls and Zarate, 28 January 2026. Shorter version prepared for the May 2026 AEA Papers & Proceedings.
“Remote Work, Competition, and Wages: Disentangling Demand and Supply Influences,” with Sekyu Choi, Oscar Jaramillo and Benjamin Villena-Roldan. Working paper, 22 January 2026.
“Policy News and Stock Market Volatility,” with Scott Baker, Nick Bloom and Kyle Kost. Journal of Financial Economics, January 2026. NBER Digest Summary | Cato Research Briefs in Economic Policy | Data | Replication Package
“Why Working from Home Varies Across Countries and People,” with Pablo Zarate, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom and Cevat Giray Aksoy. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science (PNAS), 15 December 2025. Replication Package | Supplementary Materials | Earlier version with individual-level analysis | VoxEU article.
“Rethinking the Production of Economic Statistics,” remarks at the NBER Conference on Advancing Economic Measurement, National Press Club, 12 November 2025. Slides | Related memo
“Pay Cuts versus Layoffs: What Do Workers Think?” with Pawel Krolikowski, Microeconomic Insights, 11 November 2025.
“The Trade Policy Rupture,” Freedom Frequency, 6 October 2025.
“Tapping Business and Household Surveys to Sharpen Our View of Work from Home” with Barrero, Bloom, Bonney, Breaux, Buffington, Foster, McKenzie, Savage and Tello-Trillo. CES Working Paper CES-25-36, revised 22 September 2025 | The Hill
“Tracking the Evolution of China’s Surface Transport Network,” with Meijun Qian and Wen Zeng, 11 August 2025. | Readme | Technical Details | Database (large file). This paper previously circulated as “A Comprehensive GIS Database for China’s Surface Transport Network with Implications for Transport and Socioeconomics.”
“Macro Shocks and Firm-Level Response Heterogeneity,” with Stephen Hansen and Cristhian Seminario-Amez, 10 June 2025. VoxEU | Slides
“Reservation Wages Revisited: Empirics with Canonical Models,” with Pawel Krolikowski, 25 May 2025.
“Policy Interventions and China’s Stock Market in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic,” with Dingqian Liu, Xuguang Simon Sheng, and Yan Wang, 18 April 2025. NBER Working Paper 33485. Replication Package
“Measuring Work from Home,” with Jose Maria Barrero, Nick Bloom, and Shelby Buckman, 15 February 2025. NBER WP 33508.
Monthly briefing from the Survey of Working Arrangements and Attitudes: September 2026 | Full collection
Monthly report from the Survey of Business Uncertainty: September 2026 | Full collection here under “Findings & Results”
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